| 1. Identity statement | ||||
| Reference Type | Journal Article | |||
| Site | mtc-m21b.sid.inpe.br | |||
| Holder Code | isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S | |||
| Identifier | 8JMKD3MGP3W34P/3LKJE95 | |||
| Repository | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21b/2016/05.03.16.53 (restricted access) | |||
| Last Update | 2016:05.03.16.58.34 (UTC) simone | |||
| Metadata Repository | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21b/2016/05.03.16.53.08 | |||
| Metadata Last Update | 2021:03.06.05.21.30 (UTC) administrator | |||
| DOI | 10.1111/gcb.13134 | |||
| ISSN | 1354-1013 | |||
| Citation Key | AguiarVADTSBCSANO:2016:AnFoTr | |||
| Title | Land use change emission scenarios: Anticipating a forest transition process in the Brazilian Amazon  | |||
| Year | 2016 | |||
| Month | May | |||
| Access Date | 2024, May 18 | |||
| Type of Work | journal article | |||
| Secondary Type | PRE PI | |||
| Number of Files | 1 | |||
| Size | 613 KiB | |||
| 2. Context | ||||
| Author | 1 Aguiar, Ana Paula Dutra 2 Vieira, Ima Célia Guimarães 3 Assis, Talita Oliveira 4 Dalla Nora, Elói Lennon 5 Toledo, Peter Mann de 6 Santos Júnior, Roberto Araújo Oliveira 7 Batistella, Mateus 8 Coelho, Andrea Santos 9 Savaget, Elza Kawakami 10 Aragão, Luiz Eduardo Oliveira e Cruz de 11 Nobre, Carlos Afonso 12 Ometto, Jean Pierre Henry Balbaud | |||
| Resume Identifier | 1 2 3 4 5 8JMKD3MGP5W/3C9JJ46 6 7 8 9 10 11 8JMKD3MGP5W/3C9JGQ7 | |||
| Group | 1 CST-CST-INPE-MCTI-GOV-BR 2 3 CST-CST-SPG-INPE-MCTI-GOV-BR 4 CST-CST-INPE-MCTI-GOV-BR 5 CST-CST-INPE-MCTI-GOV-BR 6 CST-CST-INPE-MCTI-GOV-BR 7 8 CRA-CCR-INPE-MCTI-GOV-BR 9 10 DSR-OBT-INPE-MCTI-GOV-BR 11 12 CST-CST-INPE-MCTI-GOV-BR | |||
| Affiliation | 1 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 2 Museu Paraense Emílio Goeldi (MPEG) 3 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 4 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 5 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 6 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 7 Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP) 8 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 9 Universidade Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP) 10 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 11 Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superio (CAPES) 12 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) | |||
| Author e-Mail Address | 1 ana.aguiar@inpe.br 2 3 talita.assis@inpe.br 4 eloi.dallanora@inpe.br 5 peter.toledo@inpe.br 6 roberto.santos@inpe.br 7 8 9 10 luiz.aragao@inpe.br 11 12 jean.ometto@inpe.br | |||
| Journal | Global Change Biology | |||
| Volume | 22 | |||
| Number | 5 | |||
| Pages | 1821-1840 | |||
| Secondary Mark | A1_MEDICINA_I A1_INTERDISCIPLINAR A1_GEOGRAFIA A1_GEOCIÊNCIAS A1_ENGENHARIAS_III A1_CIÊNCIAS_BIOLÓGICAS_I A1_CIÊNCIAS_AMBIENTAIS A1_CIÊNCIAS_AGRÁRIAS_I A1_BIODIVERSIDADE A2_PLANEJAMENTO_URBANO_E_REGIONAL_/_DEMOGRAFIA A2_ASTRONOMIA_/_FÍSICA B1_EDUCAÇÃO C_ENGENHARIAS_II | |||
| History (UTC) | 2016-05-03 16:53:08 :: simone -> administrator :: 2016-06-04 05:08:30 :: administrator -> simone :: 2016 2016-06-20 16:05:09 :: simone -> administrator :: 2016 2016-07-04 12:30:01 :: administrator -> simone :: 2016 2016-07-08 17:26:24 :: simone -> administrator :: 2016 2021-03-06 05:21:30 :: administrator -> simone :: 2016 | |||
| 3. Content and structure | ||||
| Is the master or a copy? | is the master | |||
| Content Stage | completed | |||
| Transferable | 1 | |||
| Content Type | External Contribution | |||
| Version Type | publisher | |||
| Keywords | Brazilian Amazon CO2 emissions Deforestation Forest degradation Forest transition Scenarios Secondary vegetation Sustainability | |||
| Abstract | Following an intense occupation process that was initiated in the 1960s, deforestation rates in the Brazilian Amazon have decreased significantly since 2004, stabilizing around 6000 km2 yr-1 in the last 5 years. A convergence of conditions contributed to this, including the creation of protected areas, the use of effective monitoring systems, and credit restriction mechanisms. Nevertheless, other threats remain, including the rapidly expanding global markets for agricultural commodities, large-scale transportation and energy infrastructure projects, and weak institutions. We propose three updated qualitative and quantitative land-use scenarios for the Brazilian Amazon, including a normative 'Sustainability' scenario in which we envision major socio-economic, institutional, and environmental achievements in the region. We developed an innovative spatially explicit modelling approach capable of representing alternative pathways of the clear-cut deforestation, secondary vegetation dynamics, and the old-growth forest degradation. We use the computational models to estimate net deforestation-driven carbon emissions for the different scenarios. The region would become a sink of carbon after 2020 in a scenario of residual deforestation (~1000 km2 yr-1) and a change in the current dynamics of the secondary vegetation - in a forest transition scenario. However, our results also show that the continuation of the current situation of relatively low deforestation rates and short life cycle of the secondary vegetation would maintain the region as a source of CO2 - even if a large portion of the deforested area is covered by secondary vegetation. In relation to the old-growth forest degradation process, we estimated average gross emission corresponding to 47% of the clear-cut deforestation from 2007 to 2013 (using the DEGRAD system data), although the aggregate effects of the postdisturbance regeneration can partially offset these emissions. Both processes (secondary vegetation and forest degradation) need to be better understood as they potentially will play a decisive role in the future regional carbon balance. | |||
| Area | CST | |||
| doc Directory Content | access | |||
| source Directory Content | there are no files | |||
| agreement Directory Content |
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| 4. Conditions of access and use | ||||
| Language | en | |||
| Target File | aguiar_land.pdf | |||
| User Group | simone | |||
| Reader Group | administrator simone | |||
| Visibility | shown | |||
| Archiving Policy | denypublisher denyfinaldraft | |||
| Read Permission | deny from all and allow from 150.163 | |||
| Update Permission | not transferred | |||
| 5. Allied materials | ||||
| Linking | 8JMKD3MGP5W34M/3GBUHCP | |||
| Mirror Repository | urlib.net/www/2011/03.29.20.55 | |||
| Next Higher Units | 8JMKD3MGPCW/3ER446E 8JMKD3MGPCW/3EUAE4H 8JMKD3MGPCW/3F3T29H 8JMKD3MGPCW/449U4PL | |||
| Citing Item List | sid.inpe.br/bibdigital/2013/10.19.20.40 4 sid.inpe.br/bibdigital/2021/03.06.05.18 2 sid.inpe.br/bibdigital/2013/09.13.21.11 2 | |||
| Dissemination | WEBSCI; PORTALCAPES; SCOPUS. | |||
| Host Collection | sid.inpe.br/mtc-m21b/2013/09.26.14.25.20 | |||
| 6. Notes | ||||
| Empty Fields | alternatejournal archivist callnumber copyholder copyright creatorhistory descriptionlevel e-mailaddress format isbn label lineage mark nextedition notes orcid parameterlist parentrepositories previousedition previouslowerunit progress project rightsholder schedulinginformation secondarydate secondarykey session shorttitle sponsor subject tertiarytype url | |||
| 7. Description control | ||||
| e-Mail (login) | simone | |||
| update | ||||